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‘Fusion is not only a technical topic,’ EIRES fusion program manager Guido Lange said as an opening statement. ‘Fusion is an international, long term development, in which aspects like geopolitics, economy, legislation, logistics, and communication play a major role. Currently, different countries are stepping up their ambitions when it comes to fusion programs. The tendency is to focus on the technology first. But it is imperative to also start thinking about the associated socio-economic aspects and logistics before the first demonstrator is up and running.’

Crash course fusion physics

During the EnergyDays meeting, five speakers dealt with the topic from various angles. DIFFER researcher Roger Jaspers kicked off with a crash course in fusion physics, aiming to answer the question: Do we know enough to start building fusion reactors? ‘My first message today is: fusion works. Not only in space, but on earth as well. Recently, American researchers have demonstrated the generation of net fusion power – their contraption generated more fusion output power than they had to use to make the fusion process work. But… there still is a big gap between such an individual reaction and a large scale fusion plant.’ Jaspers explained that different reactor designs are explored simultaneously, each at different levels of maturation. ‘All in all, the physics is largely in place. What we are working on now are mainly engineering challenges, most of which are related to materials. And non-scientific challenges are gaining in importance, such as the availability of resources, both in terms of materials and in human capital.’

Systems thinking

Torben Beernaert, who recently defended his PhD thesis at DIFFER, elaborated on the complexity of the fusion development process. He stated that systems thinking is crucial to effectively plan and execute complex fusion development projects. ‘A fusion reactor is like a house of cards. If one element fails, the entire thing collapses. We need to see the big picture and include all aspects that are of relevance for the operation of the reactor.’ In his presentation, he stated the reactor to be a system of systems. In order to fully understand all of the underlying interdependencies, you would have to dive deeper and deeper into the machine until its most basic components, he said. ‘To make matters even more complicated, the reactor itself is also part of a bigger system, namely the energy infrastructure. This also comes with its own restrictions and requirements. That is why I think that, in order for us to have fusion in the Netherlands by 2052, we will all have to be system thinkers.’

Economic viability

Emiel van Druten, PhD student at ¹û¶³´«Ã½â€™s Department of Industrial Engineering and Innovation Sciences, discussed the results of a study into the potential role for nuclear fusion in the Dutch electricity grid. He had performed this study with his former colleagues at Witteveen+Bos. In this study, they had looked into the economics of energy systems and searched for the cost optimal solutions on a European level. For fusion energy to become economically viable, the price per kilowatt-hour of energy should drastically be reduced, he warned. ‘And if cheap fusion power would become available, it would be most beneficial for inland regions where the local demand exceeds the renewable potential, like in the east of the Netherlands, or the north-eastern part of France. Based on my research, my best guess for now is that fusion is too complex and too expensive to ever play a dominant role in our energy system. But it might turn out to be an interesting solution to meet the load growth that results from the expected battery electrification of shipping and aviation. I can imagine we would have a fusion reactor in the Port of Rotterdam or near Schiphol to provide the electricity for ships or airplanes to charge their batteries.’

Learning from the past

To provide a perspective on what the societal debate about fusion power could look like, Marleen Schuijer from the Rathenau Institute presented a number of lessons that can be drawn from previous experiences with nuclear fission technology. The Rathenau Institute recently presented the Dutch government with an advice on the decision-making process regarding the long-term management of radioactive waste, based on a five-year studies into the topic. ‘Nuclear waste management has a number of associated challenges that overlap with those of nuclear fusion,’ Schuijer said. ‘Both fission and fusion have to deal with issues of safety, are first of a kind technologies for which there is no IKEA building instruction available, they are both  controversial, and the development of the technology takes multiple generations, during which things like political views might change dramatically.’ From the Rathenau report on nuclear waste, Schuijer distilled five lessons that are also of relevance for fusion technology: ‘First of all, we should take one step at a time, and change our plans along the way to adjust to changing circumstances. The second lesson is to keep considering alternatives to counteract tunnel vision. The third is to legitimize any decisions we make before deciding on the next step. A fourth lesson from the past is that we need to involve the public early, in the phase where decisions are not yet fixed. And finally, it is key to generate socially robust knowledge, meaning that we need to involve the public in establishing the research agenda and that we should make the resulting information as widely available as possible.’

Future trends

The final speaker of the day, Pallas Agterberg from Alliander, presented some of her international perspectives on the long term trends in energy systems development. ‘As a challenge officer at Alliander, I look at the energy transition from a strategic perspective. Which trends do I see, and how can our company respond to them? Overall, resilience and circularity will be the key words for the future. In terms of technological trends, artificial intelligence based design of solutions is definitely going to gain in importance. Modular design is entering our grids, which means that we need to devise solutions to integrate edge systems. In terms of grid capacity, the move toward electrification of transport and industry will mean a dramatic increase in the demand for electricity. For power generation, solar and wind energy will be the basis, with hydrogen as a means for seasonal storage. Fusion is not going to be of help when it comes to the energy transition. Fusion only has a future if we would be able to turn it into a modular technology that can for example can be integrated in an airplane, or can be used to power an industrial area. At the moment, fusion still is a solution that is waiting for a problem. But there is no doubt in my mind that we will eventually come up with application areas for which fusion reactors will turn out to be the perfect match.’

From dream to question mark

During the closing panel discussion, the audience and the five speakers engaged in lively discussions about the merits and pitfalls of fusion technology, and the associated possible futures of the technology. All in all, the fact that over the past few years, more private parties have started to gain interest in and to invest in fusion technology, was seen as a positive development that could accelerate its maturation and implementation. Guido Lange concluded: ‘Fusion started out as a physicists’ dream, turned into an engineers’ nightmare, and now is an economists’ big question mark.’